Research Update:
Ratings On Swiss Re And Core
Subsidiaries Affirmed; Liquidity
Management Considered Robust
Primary Credit Analyst:
Peter Grant, London (44) 20-7176-7086;peter_grant@standardandpoors.com
Secondary Credit Analyst:
Simon Marshall, London (44) 20-7176-7080;simon_marshall@standardandpoors.com
Table Of Contents
Rationale
Outlook
Ratings List
September 25, 2008
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Research Update:
Ratings On Swiss Re And Core Subsidiaries
Affirmed; Liquidity Management Considered
Robust
Rationale
On Sept. 25, 2008, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'AA-'
insurer financial strength and long-term counterparty credit ratings on
Zurich-based global reinsurer Swiss Reinsurance Co. and its core subsidiaries.
The outlook remains stable.
The affirmation comes in response to the heightened level of investor
queries surrounding the resilience of Swiss Re's financial strength in light
of the increased turbulence in global financial markets over the past
fortnight.
Standard & Poor's expects both Swiss Re's liquidity and capital positions
to remain very strong.
Swiss Re has a robust liquidity management process in place. The spot
liquidity (liquidity sources, excluding committed external funding, readily
available to the group treasury function within seven days) currently
available to Swiss Re Zurich--the group's ultimate holding company and one of
its main operating entities--exceeds $20 billion.
To put this in some context, turbulence in global markets over the past
12 months has caused incremental collateral requirements for the group's
financial markets business estimated at approximately $3 billion, and the
group's largest historical single cash payment in respect of its traditional
reinsurance business has been less than $1 billion. Consequently, Standard &
Poor's expects the group's liquidity position to prove resilient to further
distress in the financial markets, even if that were to be coupled with a very
substantial insured loss event.
The group has also been able to access funding in a variety of forms in
recent weeks, at competitive rates, thereby providing tangible evidence of its
continued very strong financial flexibility.
We also expect Swiss Re's very strong capital position to remain
resilient in the face of continued market turbulence, and the group is still
expected to hold a substantial surplus to Standard & Poor's 'AA' level capital
target for the financial year ended Dec. 31, 2008. We expect further
significant unrealized losses on the group's corporate bond and asset-backed
securities portfolios to be partially offset by a reduction in asset risk
charges following the adoption of a more comprehensive hedging program in
respect of the credit risk inherent within the group's investment portfolio.
Standard & Poor's RatingsDirect | September 25, 2008 2
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Outlook
The stable outlook reflects Standard & Poor's expectation that capital
adequacy, as measured using our risk-based model, will remain at least very
strong. Standard & Poor's expects the combined ratio for the group (excluding
nontraditional business) to be less than 97.5% in 2008 and to remain below
100% in 2009. Return on equity (ROE) will be heavily influenced by the
investment return over the next 12-18 months, which will make it a challenge
for the group to meet its 14% (cross-cycle) ROE target in either 2008 or 2009.
For 2008 and 2009, total (life and non-life) return on revenue (ROR) of about
10% and non-life ROR exceeding 10% are expected. The ROR for life business is
expected to be about 9%.
A revision of the outlook on Swiss Re and its core subsidiaries to
negative would likely be driven either by the emergence of a capital shortfall
at the 'AA' level or by concerns about operating performance. An outlook
revision to positive, the likelihood of which is considered remote over the
rating horizon, would depend on the proven resilience of the group's very
strong capital position to the more testing economic and operating environment
that lies ahead. It would also depend on the group's ability to sustain its
operating performance at a very strong level, defined as Swiss Re meeting its
own target of an average ROE of 14% over the cycle. In addition, the group
would be expected to either perform in line with, or outperform, its similarly
rated reinsurance peers.
Ratings List
Ratings Affirmed
Swiss Reinsurance Co.
Counterparty Credit Rating AA-/Stable/A-1+
Financial Strength Rating AA-/Stable
NB: This list does not include all ratings affected.
Additional Contact:
Insurance Ratings Europe;InsuranceInteractive_Europe@standardandpoors.com
Ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect, the
real-time Web-based source for Standard & Poor's credit ratings, research, and
risk analysis, at www.ratingsdirect.com. It can also be found on Standard &
Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com; select your preferred
country or region, then Ratings in the left navigation bar, followed by Credit
Ratings Search. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's
numbers: Client Support Europe (44) 20-7176-7176; London Press Office (44)
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(46) 8-440-5914; or Moscow (7) 495-783-4017.
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Research Update: Ratings On Swiss Re And Core Subsidiaries Affirmed; Liquidity Management Considered Robust
Standard & Poor's RatingsDirect | September 25, 2008 4
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Research Update: Ratings On Swiss Re And Core Subsidiaries Affirmed; Liquidity Management Considered Robust
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